Energy is a big topic in Batavia and we contracted with the Brattle Group to help define our energy strategy and future. Last night the city council had their first “blush” of the initial findings and these will be refined over the course of upcoming months with opportunities for public feedback and commentary.
1. IRP Draft Overview, Timeline, and Transparency
The meeting began with a review of the IRP draft and the schedule for public engagement.
- IRP Goal: This first draft is part of four reports the Brattle Group is assisting with, intended to shape the utility’s future and serve as a basis for community feedback.
- Draft Release: The draft report is scheduled to be released to the public by October 31st, with a mailing to all residents.
- Public Comment Period: The full public comment period will run from October 31st through December 30th.
- Public Meeting: A public hearing and comment session is anticipated for December 9th.
- Final IRP: All public questions and responses will be collected by the end of the year, with the final IRP to be adopted in early 2026.
- Confidentiality: The consultants clarified that the meeting was a public session, and any “confidential draft” labels on internal documents were temporary; the public will receive a modified version of the draft.
2. Key Observations and Market Outlook
The Brattle Group consultants presented their nine key observations, with a focus on load trends and market risk.
- Load Forecast: Batavia’s load growth has been flat or very limited since 2018, mirroring the general trend in the region. The base case load forecast is projected to remain roughly flat through 2045.
- Note: Peak energy usage dropped from 89.7 MW in 2018 to 85.5 MW in 2024, largely attributed to industry leaving.
- NIMPA Contract: Batavia’s 55 MW supply contract with NIMPA provides enough energy (total power used, like car fuel) but not necessarily enough capacity (ability to meet peak demand, like car passenger capacity). When usage exceeds 55 MW (up to 85-87 MW), power must be purchased from the PJM market.
- Market Risk: The biggest risk identified for Batavia is that PJM capacity prices will likely triple to increase by five times compared to today through 2040, driven by natural gas prices and a backlog in the generator interconnection queue.
3. Resource Options and Recommendations
The IRP evaluated three scenarios (Base, High Price, Low Market Price) and compared various resource options.
- Capacity Accreditation: Resources like solar and batteries have a much lower Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC)—a measure of reliable capacity—than dispatchable generation.
- A natural gas reciprocating engine (Recip) receives almost 100% capacity credit.
- A 4-hour battery receives about 49% capacity credit.
- Preferred Resource (Reciprocating Engine): Building a natural gas reciprocating internal combustion engine (Recip) is recommended as the best way to hedge against rising energy and capacity prices.
- Recip Advantages: It acts as a physical hedge, offers twice the capacity value of a battery for the same investment, and uses a cleaner fuel than the PJM market average.
- Recip Sizing/Fuel: Typical units are around 10 MW. While it is hydrocarbon-based, modern recips can be natural gas/hydrogen ready, offering a potential conversion pathway when natural gas is phased out.
- Action Plan: The first step in the immediate 5-year plan is to solicit actual quotes (RFI) for generation assets to confirm desktop cost estimates and location feasibility.
- Demand Side Management (DSM): Time of usage (TOU) rates, especially for commercial and industrial customers, are the most promising DSM option, but a pilot program is recommended to assess customer response and impact on utility revenue.
4. Council Discussion and Feedback
The council raised several questions regarding the practical implementation and public communication of the IRP.
- Public Perception vs. Economics: The council noted that the public previously expressed a preference for renewable resources over a hydrocarbon-based solution, which must be addressed during the public comment period.
- Homeowner Cost: Council requested that the cost difference between resource options be presented to the public in a digestible format, such as the percentage increase to a typical homeowner’s monthly bill.
- Data Accuracy: The council questioned the estimated number of 89 electric vehicles (EVs) in Batavia, noting that this figure appears to be a significant undercount based on local observation and likely only reflects permitted home charging stations.
- Facility Location: A major concern was the immediate need to secure land and size parameters for the proposed local generation (Recip) to prevent future land acquisition issues, as the city is nearly built out.
- IRP as a Multi-Step Process: It was stressed that this draft is merely Step 1 of a larger planning cycle; subsequent infrastructure and cost of service/rate design studies (Steps 2 and 3) could alter the final recommendations before a decision is made in 2026.
Author: Jim Fahrenbach
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